Big Brother 14: Final 3 Scenarios Dissected| September 12, 2012 at 2:00 PM EDT
Now that we know who was evicted last night during the special Big Brother 14 episode taping and who went on to win the next HoH we can start to do some solid speculation regarding who will make it to the Final 3 this season. If you’d rather dodge the latest Big Brother 14 spoilers then stop reading now. Otherwise, let’s take a look.
The basis of this discussion will be two assumptions: 1) Jenn was evicted & 2) Danielle is the new HoH. Based on the highly credible leaks last night I couldn’t be more confident in these assumptions.
What’s special about this round of Final 4 competitions is how the Power of Veto becomes more powerful than having won Head of Household. That’s not to say the HoH is pointless this week though as it guarantees a seat in the Final 3 which means anyone targeting that HG for eviction will now have to hope for another chance in the following round. The Veto holder this week will have the option to change the nominations and then cast the sole vote for eviction. With no opportunity for a tie-breaker this reign of HoH is powerless outside of safety from the moment it begins.
Since Danielle is the alleged HoH that leaves us with a few potential scenarios. It’s effectively pointless, but Danielle will nominate two HGs today if she hasn’t already. Danielle previously teased Dan that she would nominate him and he told her that’s exactly what she should do if she wins HoH. As such, I wouldn’t be surprised by Dan and Ian nominations. If Danielle doesn’t do that then it’ll be Shane and Ian. Either way I expect Ian on the block as he has the weakest connection to Danielle of all her options.
Let’s look at the 4 potential Veto scenarios starting with Dan. If Dan wins the Veto he’ll have his choice between evicting Shane and Ian. This is a no-brainer. Shane is Danielle’s other closet ally so getting him out of the picture guarantees Dan with a Final 2 seat. Danielle will take Dan over Ian to the F2 and Ian will take Dan over Danielle.
If Ian wins the Veto then he’ll pick between Dan and Shane for eviction. Ian has sworn up and down that he’ll take Dan to the end and I believe him. Ian will evict Shane. In that F3 scenario I believe Dan would take Danielle to the F2 and Danielle would take Dan to the F2. If Ian wants to get to the F2 he’ll have to win that last HoH battle.
Should Shane win the Veto then he’ll get to evict either Dan or Ian. Bound to Danielle, Shane will choose to keep her happy and evict Ian over Dan. From there I believe Dan would take Danielle and Danielle would probably take Dan. I’m highly confident on the former and mostly confident on the latter. If Danielle is love-struck enough by Shane she could consider taking Shane as a way to win his heart, but considering Danielle has hidden things from Shane makes me think she’s on Team Dan to the end. Just like Ian’s case, if Shane wants to get to the F2 then he’ll need to win the final HoH comps.
Last scenario has Danielle winning the Veto. Now this one is trickier because the eviction will depend on her nominations. Of course she could change her noms if she was trying to hide anything by the original nominations, but I’m guessing with Ian most likely on the block she won’t need to do that. Okay, nevermind, I don’t really think this situation is trickier since I’m expecting Ian on the block in either case. If it’s Dan and Ian nominated then Shane would vote out Ian to keep Dan. If it’s Shane and Ian nominated then Dan will evict Shane to keep his one-sided F2 deal with Ian in play. Should I be completely wrong and Dan and Shane are nom’d then I’d expect Ian to vote out Shane.
Right now I’d say Danielle and Dan have effectively secured a F3 seat. Who ends up in the third spot there just depends on who wins the Veto as detailed above.
Shane and Ian both have a fifty-fifty shot at the chance. A Shane or Danielle Veto win secures Shane’s F3 spot. A Dan or Ian Veto win secures Ian’s F3 spot. A Danielle win goes back to all the potential outcomes with 2/3 of them favoring Ian. I’d say Ian has a slightly better shot at F3 than Shane.
Now it’s your turn. What do you think will happen? Are my scenarios way off or do you agree? Share your thoughts while we wait for the Live Feeds to return!
Update: Haste makes waste. In my rush to summarize nearly 800 words in to a few sentences I mangled my thoughts by stating a 50/50 shot for Ian and Shane. I’ve corrected that error to show my suspected odds favoring Ian.