Big Brother 19 Final 3: Who Should Win? Season Stats And Strategies

It’s Big Brother 19 Finale Week (Finale Eve to be exact), so that means one of the remaining three houseguests will soon be crowned the latest winner of Big Brother.

Will it be the “vet” who played back-to-back who gets redemption after coming in second place last season? Or will it be his protege who did most of his dirty work all season who takes the win? Or maybe it’ll be the last female standing (on one foot)? With the way the jury is shaping up, it’s anyone’s guess who will win. But based on the season’s statistics and strategies, it’s pretty clear who should be rewarded and who shouldn’t. Let’s take a closer look at the final 3.


I have very little good to say about Christmas’ game. Which is typical in recent final 3 scenarios. There’s always one person who was either completely dragged to the end, or someone who ended up there out of luck and shouldn’t have even come close to that position. In my opinion, that person is Christmas this season.

She made none of her own moves, falling at Paul’s feet at every turn. Her competition wins were thrown to her, and her social game has been on the decline the entire season.

However, the one thing that makes it an actual disgrace to see her at this point in the game is that she is now considering telling both Paul and Josh to take each other to Final 2 and she’s fine landing in 3rd place. I have to say, though, the way this season has played out with all the comp throwing and idiotic moves, I’m not at all surprised.

Does Christmas deserve to win Big Brother 19? Absolutely not. She deserves it less than BB18 James and BB16 Victoria. No. No. No. OK, maybe not less than James.

Can Christmas win Big Brother 19? I’m going to say no, since neither Paul nor Josh are going to take her to the end. I do think she could possibly beat Paul, however, just based on what we’re hearing coming from the jury this season. But right now, I’m going with no; Christmas will finish third.


I think Josh has been the most surprising houseguest this season. He’s gone from the biggest target in Week 1 (thank you, golden apple intended for Paul) to the person now most-likely to walk away with the $500,000 Wednesday night.

Josh hasn’t played the best game. Or the cleanest game. He’s been terrible at jury management, having fought with almost every member of the jury at one time or another. But Josh was upfront with everyone, unlike Paul. So depending on what the jury is thinking, Josh could be rewarded for being honest and not lying to everyone like Paul did.

It’s really starting to look like Josh stands a real chance at winning this season. I think Josh’s goodbye messages to Jason, Alex and Kevin could really help him in the end. I’d go as far to say those messages were his best game moves from the entire season. They completely negated Paul’s messages and clearly helped create a rift in the jury. Good move for sure.

Does Josh deserve to win Big Brother 19? Against Christmas, 100 percent yes. Against Paul, no. If Josh does beat Paul, it won’t be completely undeserving, but no one who followed Paul’s every command deserves to win over Paul himself. Sure, Josh had his doubts about Paul and contemplated making a strike against him, but those moves were never made.

Can Josh win Big Brother 19? Definitely. If he does end up winning Part 3 of the final HOH and does decide to make that move (but don’t expect that to happen), then Josh will win Big Brother 19. And even if he is sitting next to Paul at the end, he can still win. Right now, I think we can only be certain Paul has Raven’s and Matt’s votes. He’s still got to come up with at least three more to win. He’ll get Christmas’ vote when she walks out the door Wednesday, so that  leaves two more. It might be hard for Paul to get them. We’ll see.


Note: Yes, I’m aware that Cody tried to nominate Paul, but technically he wasn’t nominated. 

This time last year, I was sitting here writing this same post about this same person. Last year, however, I was pouring my heart into a thoughtful analysis of a hard-working underdog who was sure to win Big Brother 18 and definitely deserved it. That, of course, didn’t happen, and Paul returned this season for another shot. And here we are.

Can he do it this time? I’m not sure of that. As I’ve already mentioned, though, Paul does deserve to win this season. He’s controlled the entire house, and even though he did start the game out with safety, there were a number of times he could have been targeted and evicted, but no one made the move.

Paul’s game this season has been a bit darker and dirtier, which has divided a lot of his fans and has left him as one of the most unpopular players this season. That’s a huge change from last year. But does that mean he shouldn’t win this season? No way. Everyone loves that question at the beginning of every season: Would you rather win and be hated or lose and be loved. We ALWAYS want them to say win and be hated. But as soon as they play the game that way, we just want them to lose and hate them anyway. I don’t know why that is. But I’m throwing that thinking out the window. You don’t have to be a nice person to play a good game of Big Brother.

Does Paul deserve to win Big Brother 19? Yes. Does he deserve it as much as he did last season? No. But he does deserve to win over Josh or Christmas. He is why they are there and he is why every person sitting in jury is sitting in jury.

Can Paul win Big Brother 19? I once thought Paul would win the game unanimously. But then Paul started lying in his goodbye messages. People don’t like being lied to. Paul should have owned his moves in his goodbye messages. He will have very little time Wednesday night to own his game, and even then, most jurors have already made up their minds anyway. So right now, I’m going to say yes, Paul can still win BB19. But there’s a bigger chance he loses this season than there was last season. Sorry, Paul. Good luck.


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