Big Brother 19 is about to deliver another Double Eviction with this Thursday’s live show and the Houseguests are about to be sent in to a frenzy when Julie reveals the big news and they scramble to set their rapid fire targets.
Paul, Christmas, and Josh are calling the shots this week and with Jason out the door next there are fewer threats to their chances of making it to the end. In fact, with Paul’s Veto plan Alex may be foolish enough yet again to throw this one and see her game end soon after Jason’s.
To set the ground rules here, after Jason goes there will be only three votes to evict during the second elimination of the Double Eviction night. No chance of a tiebreaker. You’ll need two votes of support to stay.
Paul is working to make sure Alex still trusts him ahead of the next turn so he can try and convince her to throw the HoH comp to him, but even then he doesn’t want to win it. Paul’s ideal scenario here would be for Alex to drop out then he could too and the HoH would go to Raven who could target Alex for him. Previously Paul had suggested either Raven or Josh could take this step for him, but given Josh’s recently voiced concerns Paul may not be willing to rely on him to follow his marching orders.
Should either Josh or Raven get HoH then I’d watch for Alex and Kevin to be nominated and Alex to go. The trick there will to see if Paul tries to throw one vote to Alex so she doesn’t realize he was solidly against her. The danger there is if someone else, like say Josh trying to mess with Paul’s perfect plan, tries to make that same move then the pawn goes and Alex stays.
If Alex is up during the DE vote then Alex goes, save for any hinky vote hijinks . But, what if Alex doesn’t fall for this plan and gets her hands on the DE HoH? Well “Petty Alex” might end up going after Kevin and Josh because she dislikes Kevin and will blame Josh for the Jason eviction, assuming she believes Paul wasn’t in on the plan. Should Josh and Kevin stay up on the Block then Kevin would probably be voted out. Christmas will want to save Josh and Raven blames Kevin for Matthew’s eviction last week.
It’s unlikely that Kevin wins HoH since winning comps hasn’t been his thing yet and no one will be actively trying to throw anything to him, unlike Paul would do with Raven who similarly can’t win her way out of a wet paper bag. But, if Kevin trips backwards in to a win then I’d watch for him to nominate Alex and Raven. He doesn’t like either and Paul would tell him to do just that as well. In that case Alex is evicted just as before.
I don’t see Paul trying to win HoH here unless there’s some sort of disaster in the comp’s execution. He doesn’t need to win this either. Paul is wholly insulated here in every direction. Even with coordinating Jason’s departure this week he’s doing it in a way to keep Alex trusting him and she’ll latch on to who she may think is her last ally.
Now Josh has been starting to act annoyed with Paul, so let’s play the what-if game there. Say Josh gets HoH and puts Paul up against either Raven or Kevin. Doesn’t matter. Josh won’t get two votes to evict Paul and he probably wouldn’t even get one. Alex, Christmas, and Kevin/Raven all see Paul as their F2/3 hope so they won’t send him out the door. Bang your head on the desk all you want, but they don’t see it.
We’ll look at these scenarios again in a few days as the Double Eviction gets closer, but I don’t expect any big shifts. Alex is the top DE target with either Raven or Kevin as the back up plan should Alex win HoH or save herself with Veto. Paul, Christmas, and Josh should be safe all the way around and as such I don’t expect any of them to depart on Thursday night.
What’s your dream scenario for Thursday’s Double Eviction episode? Do you think I could be wrong and Paul could end up going? Share your expectations below.