Big Brother 19: Can Anyone Beat Paul At This Point? [Analysis]

This week when either Matt or Raven head to jury, there will be seven houseguests left in the Big Brother 19 house. It’s getting down to the wire, and that means we are ready to start looking at our next Big Brother winner. At this point all signs are pointing to Paul. He’s truly the only one playing his own game and these players seem to think he can do no wrong. But could anyone actually beat him? That’s the question we’re all starting to ask ourselves. Let’s take a look.

Paul Abrahamian camtalks on Big Brother 19

First, let’s analyze final two and voting scenarios. If Paul goes to the final two with Josh he likely wins. For a minute I thought Josh could be a contender, but once everyone is in jury, I think they’ll realize that Josh’s moves were all controlled or hindered by Paul. Almost everything Josh did, from the pots and pans, to getting Jessica out over Elena, was under the direction of Paul.

What about a Paul and Christmas final two? Paul wins. I don’t see anyone in jury giving her the win over Paul. There’s just no case for her as of now. Paul and Alex? It’s possible Alex could beat Paul, but I still doubt it. She would probably have Cody’s vote and Jason’s vote for sure. The only reason why I think she could maybe win over Paul is because a lot of people in the game seem to think she’s been running things. Of course that’s all a part of their blindness to Paul, and they could finally realize Alex was just Paul’s biggest minion. Also, not many people like Alex and her social game has been pure crap. So maybe she can’t beat Paul either.

Paul would definitely win against Raven (or Matt if he wasn’t going home this week). And even though I don’t think Jason will be there at the end, I think Paul would beat him as well. He is now responsible for putting the most people in jury, so that’s probably not going to earn him much respect with this cast. I could see Cody giving Jason a vote over Paul, though. So that leaves Kevin. Can Paul beat Kevin? The HGs keep saying Kevin wins at the end, but I don’t think so. They’re all so randomly bitter against Kevin that I think they’d just all continue to follow Paul and give him the vote. And Kevin’s $25,000 is really not going to help his chances with this bitter cast.

So, to me, it looks like there’s no end scenario Paul would have to worry about. So I think that means the only way someone other than Paul can win is for them to cut Paul. And that person will be the one person who could and should win the game. But who has the guts to do it? Alex? No. Jason? No. Raven? HAHAHA. Kevin? Maybe, but would he ever get the chance? Probably not. Christmas? Hmm. No, because she’s off her pain meds. Josh? Maybe. I think as we wind down a little more, Josh will be the one person to realize that Paul wins in the end. And then Christmas will begin to see it as well. By that time, however, it will probably be too late because Paul will be in the perfect position to win his way to the end via competitions.

This season is even easier to call than Big Brother 16. At least then you thought maybe Caleb or Frankie would pull a rogue move. This season just feels like no one is ever going to strike. But will they? Is my thinking all wrong? Is it just too early to call? What do you think? Share your thoughts below.

 

JOIN THE DISCUSSION

Commenting Rules: Keep the conversation civil and on topic. If your comment does not add to the conversation, it will be removed. Debate intelligently. Insulting the author, Big Brother Network, or other commentators will result in comment removal and possible ban. Any comments with links or flagged words will go into moderation before approval. Anything we deem as spam will not be approved. Comments left in ALL-CAPS will be deleted regardless of content.

146 Comments

  1. The only place Paul could get booted would be at F3. If Paul doesn’t win that final live HOH, then hopefully someone would realize he’s got this entire game won. Otherwise, I’d say he wins unanimously. I think Cody would absolutely vote for him; as he told Julie, he hates everyone in the house, but Paul played the game.

  2. Throw Matt out of BB…no going to jury. Replace him on the block with Josh or Xmas. ( Putting up Paul is just too much to hope for). Matt should NOT be rewarded for disobeying all the rules. Bring back the last person evicted…who didn’t go to jury..Jessica.

    • I don’t think Jessica is an option – she knows too much about everyone’s game since she’s been on the outside. Take someone from the Jury house as they’ve been sequestered.

    • The only scenario that would occur would be throwing out Matt. They’ve already played the veto and Jess is out in the real world.

    • He should be replaced by Alex. She’s turned into a mean girl, and threw Kevin’s slop away. That’s the only food he’s allowed to have. It was mean, petty, and more than a little ridiculous.

    • Jessica has been able to watch on TV and interact with fans. Leave her right where she is…at home.

    • Toss Matt out and have no eviction this week. Instead, hold a Luxury comp or something for Thursday night. Take away Matt’s stipend and don’t allow him to go to jury. Give his vote to the fans.

    • What would be great, although BB won’t do it because they have painted themselves in a corner with having lax rules, is disqualify Matt at the eviction vote due to ‘repeated’ penalties (EVERY meal should be a penalty & a vote for example) PRIOR to voting leaving Raven as the sole nominee and she is voted out, and sending both of them to the jury house. That would kill Matt knowing he cost Raven the game. Or even have Jason nominate a replacement nominee, and watch Paul’s puppets squirm because the sheeple haven’t formulated a back up plan.

      • Better yet, kick him off the show and give him no money, this will also make future BB cast members think twice about pulling this crap!

      • Anita, regardless of how they approach it, BB definitely needs to redo their rules on the matter. They can’t just make them up as they go.

      • I agree with you. That would certainly let all the future BB cast members think twice before they sign up. I would love to see Matt’s face if they kicked Matt off. Taking away any money he would get, not allow him into jury, making him pay his own way home. It would make my day. This is a game and they all signed contracts. I saw when that girl got kicked off and I was very glad that BB lived up to the contract. Kick Matt out!!

      • Well there is precedent for throwing him off the show, but I have a feeling they won’t do it. I’ll keep my opinion on why, to myself. But they can throw him off as he is now blatantly breaking the rules.

        For him to get away with it is flat out cheating. If Raven makes it to the end (probably a moot point), then he could vote for her, benefiting from his bad behavior.

    • They would not need to replace him since the veto has already been played. Just boot him and go with an 8 member jury. In the event of a tie…which I doubt would happen…. flip a coin or pull a chip.

  3. I think the HG with the best chance of beating Paul would be Jason. He’s won a ton and especially with his independent move to leave the noms (Matt and Raven) the same this week. He went against the grain and it was a good move for him. I further think that once several other HGs join the jury, they’ll chat about Paul and his back-biting and possibly be ticked enough to award the other person the win.

    • Every year we say that but every year the vote for the back biter. Remember Andy? Biggest rat in the house and we thought there was no jury would vote for him. They did.

      Paul is actually liked personally by the house guests. They understand its a game and not personal or will once they are in jury.

      • Paul is liked by everyone in the house, or at least it appears that way, and I do believe he is a nice guy in the real world. I know he has bullied people in the BB house but he’s trying to win 500k. I don’t think anyone is going to need a psychiatrist once they step back out in the real world.

  4. You’re spot on. No one will beat Paul in F2 and no one is brave enough to put him on the block. Plus, why should they put him OTB — they all think they are aligned with him.

  5. I hated Paul last year and was glad he lost. However, I respect his game this year. He has really made himself indispensable for the moment. Its not the right time to get rid of him (hasn’t been yet). They really do still kind of need him. Jason is a huge threat and IMO you have to get Jason out before Paul. Next week you take Jason out (or Alex but preferable Jason) and then use the remaining player of Jason/Alex duo to target Paul.
    Using Josh as an example because he seems to be on to it: Next week Josh or Christmas wins HOH. Take out Jason. Back up plan is Alex. Third/Fourth Back up plan is Kevin/Raven. Then the next week or following week- use Alex (or Jason if Alex is gone) to target Paul and get him out. Then you are left with Josh, Christmas, Alex, Raven, Kevin as F5. Alex hates Raven and Kevin so she has no allies. Take her out. Then go to F4 with Josh, Christmas, Raven and Kevin. Smooth sailing. The smartest time to take out Paul, if you are doing it, is at final 5 or 4. Any longer and you lose, sooner and you miss out on a good chance to take out Alex/Jason and they are probably the strongest competitors in the game as far as comps go. Right now Paul is a number and a distraction. Not really smart to take him out just yet.

    • I don’t respect Paul’s game that it resorted to instigating and the bullying of HGs.

      And I don’t respect Jason’s anymore after what he said he’d do to Kevin’s wife while K’s kids were tied up to watch.

      The rest of the cast are just sadto watch. What a waste of a season.

  6. he was the winner of this very rigged season the moment he stepped in…AG even allowed an injured player who was setting up in a hospital stay in the game simply because they were a paul puppet..i quit watching the 4th week when it became apparent nothing was going to happen this season

    • Actually, I think what kept Christmas in the game was more likely that other girl’s self-evicting, at which point it became needing to keep from losing two hg’s so early in the season.

      Otherwise, I agree the season was weighted heavily in Paul’s favor, which generally is always the case whenever the cast vets or other stunt casting (Rachel’s sister, Frankie Grande, etc). I was actually surprised Christmas’s real world fan base didn’t help her more (or rather, that production didn’t set up more America’s vote-type things early on where Christmas’s pre-existing fan base would’ve helped her more in the beginning)

  7. Christmas and Josh will not be able to get to F2 without Paul’s help, so if they make it, F3 HOH would be the only thing that keeps him from winning. If it’s a comp based on luck, who knows. If it’s a mental comp, Christmas COULD win, physical, Josh COULD win, but I would give Paul the edge in both.

    • Christmas hasn’t been that great in mental comps. At first they blamed it on her mess but when she was studying with Josh other day she had a very hard time getting info straight.

      • Last time I was reading about her studying days, she was doing better than Josh, but that might not be saying much. I was just saying, imo, she would have a better chance than Josh in a mental comp and he would have a better chance in a physical comp than her if it was them against Paul.

      • Last night Paul asked josh 3 simple date questions, Josh didn’t get any right. If Josh and Xmas and studying together it is not going to help. I think they have equal but different skill sets if the f3 has which HG said this?

  8. Paul should have been up and out this week. Jason pulls down Raven inserts Paul on the block. Alex, Raven, because she would not vote out Matt. Kevin could be talked into it by Jason. Xmas and Josh vote Matt. Vote is 3 2 Paul goes home but they blew it there.

    • I agree it was the best play for Jason, but Alex wasn’t a sure thing to vote out Paul (even though it would be best for her game). Alternatively, I think Josh could have been persuaded to vote out Paul.

    • I’m curious, why do you think Jason would nominate someone that he “feels” is on his team (Paul)?

      YOU may see what’s going on, but the players inside the game do not have your vantage point.

      One can dislike Paul, but he has played a masterful game.

    • They all count on making f3 with Paul….even someone puts him up it won’t get voted out, yes is that dumb this season

  9. I wouldn’t count out Raven just yet. She and Josh are only ones who have even suggested Paul would be a big target. If Jason leaves Alex could decide to put Paul up. She has only stuck by him because she trusts him. That will change if Jason goes up. If she got Raven, who trusts her, Josh and Christmas on board it could happen. And if Jason did make it to F2 he could have a decent chance of winning it even with jury members he sent there. Not sure Paul has it in bag just yet.

    • I don’t want to see Raven in F2 under any scenario! She doesn’t deserve one extra penny.

      • I don’t either. Just saying she could potentially be a vote against Paul if she’s still around.

      • If Raven only knew that Paul denied meeting her at the concert and she is a crazy fan girl who lies, that might set her off. Paul told this to Xmas, Josh was in the room, listening (I hope) but didn’t comment. Xmas took the whole story in. Honestly this would be great to have leak before Matt goes so he can blow it up.

      • If that should happen, God forbid, there would be such an uproar like no other in the history of BB. I don’t even think production would want to see that happen.

  10. I’m not sure how not one person in there has realized yet that Paul hasn’t ever been on the block. Cody tried to put him up, but Paul had safety. This far along, wouldn’t it have dawned on SOMEONE??

      • I realize that. But they should have realized a red flag by now. With the HOH changing each week, and him not being nominated, might be a clue to each duo who are convinced he’s only with them.

      • He also covers himself by offering to ‘talk to the others’ and ‘calm them down’. That way he can be talking game and F3 with all sides and the HoH and crew think he’s helping them. Got to admit it’s working for him but at this point I just want his game to blow up in his face.

      • Obviously, they are all a bunch of slavish morons! I really think the network needs to re-think their casting after this season. Where did these folks come from? Another planet?

  11. Paul could have been sent home this week. Jason pulls raven and replaces her with Paul. Tells Alex Kevin and Raven vote Paul out.Votes 3 2 Raven has to vote because of Matt. Alex votes for Paul. Kevin votes for Paul. Xmas and Josh vote Matt No brainer. Jason or Alex win the game.

    • YES! It seems so obvious, yet it seems Jason never considered it. At this point, discounting a Kevin miracle win, I have to root for Paul because everyone else is too stupid for me to pull for (Kevin isn’t that smart either, but at least he isn’t totally dis-likable).

    • Matt would have probably told her to vote for him so Paul could take her farther. Matt just wanted to make jury remember and he wants Raven to win. LOL

  12. Paul’s game would have to be outed to everyone for him to go before final 4. Then this would make his minions toss votes at him to be evicted. If his game stays under wraps he get 1 or zero votes, with the one vote maybe being the persons partner. At final 4 and up its all in 1 persons hand to decide who goes. Here he may have a chance of going. But I think they all will take him over who is remaining at that point.

    • I am surprised that Dom, Cody, Jessica or Mark just didn’t out him as they walked out the door. I know Jessica tried, but one of them should have told the group to ask each other what Paul has promised them or show of hands who is going to F3/F4 with Paul?

    • The only hope would be some combo of Josh , Jason, and Kevin , all have some doubts but they just don’t talk, well the talk but just to Paul or the camera!

    • They won`t, because they all want Paul to win. Nobody really wants to win, they are fine with Paul winning.

      • No, it’s not that Lanza. Nobody wants Paul to win or any other player, except themselves. Do you think Alex wants Jason or Paul to win? No way. And vice versa.

      • But several have said, including Alex, that they wouldn’t mind coming in #2 or #3 if Paul wins.

      • Pffft. Then they truly are the worst BB players ever! Why would they ever sit back and even think that? What is the point of being there? Oh Brother!

      • They are all happy to go home with $50,000. Look at how Alex has been listening to Paul about Kevin and now she has turned on him.

      • Alex started the Kevin bashing first. Paul is using this hatred to his advantage. He keeps stoking the flames but he did not start the fire.

      • He started it before Jason made noms, just like he has done every time he has decided on the next comp.

      • Not sure. I just remember her sitting up in the HOH room. She started going off on Kevin. I think it was shortly after Kevin started trying to cut a deal with Cody. Once she started running her mouth everyone else piled on.

  13. Paul needs to get Jason and Alex out. It looks like he will get Jason out next week. Then Alex needs to go because she can win comps and then Raven needs to go because she gets too emotional and talks. Paul has the votes to get rid of these three, and people willing to win HOH and do his dirty work. Then he has Kevin josh and Xmas, all who he can beat and his plan is to win f4 and f3 HOH. Even off that doesn’t happen , unless Kevin wins f4 HOH, Paul will still be ok. The only holes in his plan is if Kevin or Alex win HOH this week. Unless Alex gets rid of Jason it gives him a chance to win the next HOH. The other flaw is keeping Kevin too long and at any point Kevin wins an HOH. I don’t see Raven, josh, Xmas, or Alex putting him up.
    One reason I think Paul can just lie and use his bully Tatics is I don’t think he really likes this cast. I think he liked some of the BB18 cast and had a BF with Vic. His talks at night are that he is lonely in the house. The man talks 24/7 to everyone but is lonely? He I don’t think has any real connections in the house maybe because of the cast or maybe the way he has played.

  14. If production has anything to do with it I say no he will go to the end and win it all because the rest of them are stupid they need to wake up but maybe that the way it suppose to be they always go to the DR maybe they are told what to do if Paul leaves it will be a dull show I can’t wait until Survivor comes on.

    • Seems like lately the DR is dropping hints about Paul to the others. Love him or hate him Paul is the only one who actually deserves to win if you are basing it on game play.

  15. Matt, you hit the nail on the head dude. Paul wins in any final scenario if he sits at final two. There really is no argument otherwise. he has had his hand in EVERYTHING that goes on in the house as far a game-play goes. It really doesn’t matter who leaves now, or in which order. If Paul is there at the end, he should win, hands down.

  16. Ugh!!! Still people on here that “quit watching” but feel the need to keep complaining…

    SOOO tired….

    Go post elsewhere, PLEASE!!!

  17. If Paul makes it to the finals he wins. The HG waited to long. Paul played the best game hands down.

  18. There is still time for people to play smarter but I am losing hope. All they have to do is start talking and comparing notes. Also, as more leave they have to turn on each other to get to the end so hopefully someone will turn on Paul. If not, then Paul deserves the win.

  19. only one that could is Jason and he would have to win everything from now on or get apple with some special power

  20. Here’s another reason why I think Jason made a bad move in not putting Kevin up – with Kevin out, Paul would likely have finally been forced to show favoritism to one of the three remaining duos, with nowhere else to throw the blame and the other two duos wising up to his machinations. But now, with Kevin still in the mix and Jason having gone against what several of them wanted him to do this week, it buys Paul another 1-2 weeks of deflecting blame onto others (Kevin & Jason).

    It might have been nice to see Jason make a move where he did what he wanted to do, but sadly, I think the only person it benefits (besides Kevin, for at least this week) is Paul…

    • That may be true, but I don’t think anyone would notice anyway. They haven’t noticed Paul working the floor the whole time they’ve been in the house!

    • Why would he likely be forced to show favoritism? If Kevin went home, Paul would be left in the house with 3 couples with each couple thinking he is with them. He throws HOH so he wouldn’t have to make the nominations. The new HOH is part of a couple so the new HOH nominates one of the other couples. Then Paul claims he has no power and is just doing what the HOH wants at vote time.

      Paul should throw every HOH until f4 and probably every veto so he doesn’t have to make a public decision. No one is going to nominate him because they all think he is part of their f3. The worst thing Paul could do for his game right now is win something that forces him to show his cards.

  21. It appears Josh has figured Paul out but he hasn’t actually made the final step to do anything about it.

    • Totally agree. I was watching feeds the other day and Josh said to Christmas……I think Paul has a deal with everybody. She brushed it off. He was like, yeah I think so. So if he can get somebody to listen to him things might change. Notice I said might.

  22. For Paul to go it would take the house to turn on him. I thought this would be the week it happens but that is not going be. Next week is crucial. If The house evicts Jason then I think Alex will turn the house against Paul. If the house evicts Raven or Kevin, Paul has another week or two.

    I do not think Paul will make final 3. It will be like a Caleb deal. His peeps will turn on him near the end when Raven and Kevin are gone.

    Having said that, the best F3 would be Alex, Jason and Paul. They deserve to win more than anyone in the house so an F3 with them would guarantee a deserving winner.

  23. I think the only two that may beat Paul if the jury are bitter that is, will be Josh or Kevin. Kevin because he is liked by everyone (except Alex) and Josh because the whole house knows he did all of Paul’s dirty work and many liked him.

    • So far we have heard from 3 jurors, Cody said he would vote Paul, Elena said she would vote Paul (if Mark got voted out), but said Alex was a strong competitor, and Mark who said he is hoping to get to vote for Jason or Alex. Matt would vote Paul and anyone but Jason. Kevin said he won’t vote for Raven or Alex but would vote for Paul or Jason. Seems like no one us even thinking of Kevin or Josh as final 2. Of course if anyone takes out Paul, it could give them the win if they make the final 2.

  24. Good article Branden. Can’t stand Paul but at this point (since Codys gone) he is the only one playing the game. The others think they are but not.

    • Cody wanted Paul out but he wasn’t playing the game. Throwing comps when you are the target is not playing the game.

    • Cody NEVER “played the game”. He played with Jessica and tried to bully the house.

      I really can’t for the life of me understand the “deification” of that moron. He had zero clue on how to play the game. He had absolutely no social game.

      • Initially, he played the game. Then he got involved with Jessica and it was pretty much “game over.”

      • Wellll….him trying to get Paul out in the 1st week was Game Over. I actually think her getting involved with him was her “game over” lol

      • At the end, the last few weeks after Jessica left, he started getting his head back in the game but it was unfortunately a little too late.

  25. Kevin looked sad or like he maybe finally seeing what’s happening. God, please let him win the next HOH

    • It will take a miracle, but I hope he wins as well. He is only the target if Alex wins. Paul wants to keep him and get rid of Alex or Jason.

  26. Agree,if Paul makes the F2,he wins..should have won last last year too but he’s not there just yet and anything cans still happen on BB and Paul knows that better than anyone,no such thing as a ‘sure thing’ in BB!

  27. Is Matt having quitter’s remorse? He’s being a seemingly real d*ck to Raven right now (deservedly, but still). He has to be realizing that he threw away what tiny chance he had at winning this game for a chick he doesn’t want to date in the real world. Now he gets 3 days of clown-face trailing him around, screeching out gibberish.

    Wow…he’s actually telling her to leave him alone lol (with an annoyed smile)

  28. No one beats Paul in final two.

    Jason can cut Paul before Paul cuts him but that would require him sniffing out Christmas Paul and Josh’s final three. Convincing Alex that Paul is just not that into her. And saving Kevin. Then Jason or Alex win hoh, put up Josh and Christmas with Paul as the backdoor plan. The likely scenario is Jason goes out next week if he doesn’t win hoh or veto.

    For the other hgs it’s imperative Paul doesn’t make final five. If he does he’s just gonna mow them down one by one.

    • Matt came out of the diary room, and said BB is scared of him and went and ate a plate of food. Ugh! He gets it all, not HN, and makes sure Raven can’t be voted out. Some punishment.

    • She seems to be attracted to assholes. ED, Cody and now Matt.

  29. IF Paul makes it to final two, he will deserve to win. The only way this does not happen is if the final three are all boys…

  30. Instead of just ending this temptation twist like a damp squib, they need to make the house guests all take an apple. That fallout may help stir things up enough to affect Pauls game?

  31. So paul convinced alex to throw the next hoh to christmas. What she doesnt know is that christmas will put alex & jason up. Surely alex isnt actually going to throw the comp. Idiot if she does at this point in the game.

    • I hope 12/25 wins and puts Alex’s punk bitch ass up on the block and makes it stick. She is starting to make the feeds unbearable. Her constant rants on Kevin are just too much and completely uncalled for.

    • I don’t know that Christmas and Josh are brave enough to have Alex or Jason’s blood on their hands. Christmas had a hard time nominating Mark. Paul only want’s HoH thrown to Christmas or Josh so Paul again doesn’t get his hands dirty for jury votes. Josh would be more likely than Christmas to take it because he doesn’t get strategy and just see’s winning HoH as a way to prove himself to others. They could throw it to Raven, she would probably do it.

  32. So far Josh seems to be the only one that sees Paul’s game of playing all sides, but he talked himself out of it. Hopefully they get him out, but they are all oblivious.

  33. Can anybody beat Paul? The question is does anybody even WANT to beat Paul? They are all protecting him, no one wants him to go on the block. It’s like put me up instead of Paul.

  34. Unfortunately, Branden, you’re right. Can anyone beat Paul? Sure. Will they? No. Because they’ve already told him it will be their honor to lose to him. And none of them will be willing to pass up such an honor. The sad thing is, whoever comes in second in F2 won’t deserve the $50K for exactly that reason.

  35. …the one to make a move on Paul after Alex or Jason is gone next. If she succeeds, she has a great chance to win.

  36. If someone gets Paul out they should win. I think the best chance for it to happen – Christmas’ HOH (she could’ve kept Mark, gotten Josh, Kevin and Mark to force a tie, then cast the tiebreaker) – has come and gone, though.

Comments are closed.