Big Brother 14: Dan and Ian study the Memory Wall

Today is the big day for Big Brother 14. We’re about to find out who wins a half-million dollars, who gets $50K, and who gets their stipend. Let’s take a look.

From what we’ve seen on the Live Feeds I think it’s safe to go ahead and predict who gets zilch right off the bat: Danielle. Until just the other day I thought we’d see Dan take his player on to the end, but private camtalk moments have revealed another plan. It looks like Dan may throw tonight’s third round to Ian and let him be the one to cut her loose. Danielle has spent the past few days making life unpleasant for Ian and he does not seem eager to return that favor by rewarding her with even the smaller prize.

With that in mind we can move on to the jury vote scenarios featuring Ian facing off against Dan. Assuming Danielle is the 7th juror, she’ll join Ashley, Britney, Joe, Frank, Jenn, and Shane as the BB14 HGs. A few days ago I did a quick back of the napkin analysis and figured Dan would knock it out of the park against either competitor, but upon further review I’m not so sure of that anymore. I do concede that I’ve weighed in heavier on the emotional/personal voting than strategic in my second analysis. When I look at things based on gameplay I was giving most of the votes to Dan, but we’ve seen everything while they’ve only had a portion of the events to take in to consideration.

Final 2: Dan Vs. Ian

  • Ashley: Ian nominated Ashley during the first double eviction night which lead to her elimination, but they did have a much closer friendship in the game than she ever did with Dan. I think she’s had time to forgive Ian and seems like a more emotional voter than strategic. I think she’ll vote for Ian.
  • Britney: This one is tough. Britney obviously gives Dan a lot of credit for his moves as we saw her debate in the Jury House, but there in her final few days and weeks in the house she did seem to have a close relationship with Ian. Being the only coach in the Jury both allows a certain freedom as there won’t be other coaches pressuring her to vote for the remaining coach. Ultimately I think she’ll go with game play and vote for Dan, but I think she could easily swing over to Ian and I won’t be surprised if she does.
  • Frank: Neither of these guys are favorites for Frank. Ian nominated Frank twice, but Dan did some serious betrayal and Frank was pretty angry about it. Once Frank has time to calm down I think he’ll go against Ian for his betrayal of Team Boogie. Frank won’t like it, but he may vote for Dan as more of a vote against Ian.
  • Joe: Ian really didn’t like Joe in the game, but I don’t think Joe felt the same way back at Ian. Meanwhile it was Dan who nominated Joe in the second double eviction which lead to him leaving the game. Joe also was not pleased with how Dan treated Danielle at the funeral and views him as a dirty player. Unless Dan is able to sway him in just 90 seconds tonight I think Joe could vote for Ian.
  • Jenn: This could be the first lock for Dan. Sure, Dan went against her in her eviction, but Jenn wanted Ian out as she repeatedly called him a “rat.” Jenn is going to vote for Dan.
  • Shane: Ouch. Shane is still hurting from his blindside eviction and I think it will keep him from voting for Dan. I don’t think Danielle will have time to convince him to vote in favor of Dan when she’s evicted tonight just before the final voting. I’m going to put Shane over in Ian’s column.
  • Danielle: Another lock for Dan. She told him last night she’ll vote for him and try to sway Shane if she doesn’t make it to the Final 2 but with the caveat that as long as it doesn’t seem like he threw it to Ian. If Dan is still going to throw it to Ian then he better be careful. Regardless, Danielle has blindly followed Dan all season so why stop now? She’ll vote for Dan.

All those votes come out to 4-3 in Dan’s favor, but dang it’s close. Frank and Britney’s votes could easily end up flipping and Ian leaves the winner 5-2 instead. Strategy vs. personal could decide the outcome tonight.

I really, really don’t think this scenario will happen, but we can still look at a Dan versus Danielle to see if he’s making the right choice in avoiding a Final 2 with her. A lot more of these guesses are based on emotional and personal decisions rather than gameplay because while I don’t think Danielle played a “bad” game, I don’t think what she accomplished stands up to what Dan did this season.

Final 2: Dan Vs. Danielle

  • Ashley: Just like with Dan, Ashley has very little connection to Danielle. This could be a coin toss decision. If she decides to go by gameplay then Dan gets it, but if she goes on an emotional factor then she could be swayed to support a newbie and vote for Danielle. I’ll lean this one toward Danielle.
  • Britney: With Ian out of the picture she’ll be able to fully support Dan. Easy choice.
  • Frank: Danielle really didn’t do anything to Frank which means if he’s still bitter then this could make it very easy for him to vote for Danielle.
  • Joe: Joe sided with Danielle after the “funeral” bit and I think he’ll stick by that. Another one for Danielle.
  • Jenn: In my first review I didn’t think Jenn would go “girl power” but she did seem pretty tight with Danielle after the rest of her team was demolished. She could vote for Danielle in that situation.
  • Shane: Danielle. No further discussion required.
  • Ian: Dan. After Danielle’s antics this week he won’t be interested in giving her the crown even if Dan has to cut him for Ian to be in the Jury.

If the Jury votes personal then Danielle could carry this 5-2 over Dan. If they go game play and strategy then Dan wins it. Dan played such a deadly game that the cuts he made went deep and if they haven’t healed by tonight then he could lose it all to her.

I’ve got to say I’ll be disappointed if Dan doesn’t go to the end with Danielle. He faced imminent elimination when he was down to just one player after the first week of the game and yet here he is along with that same last player. If he made it to the end with her he could stand up and say that he accomplished both goals: as a coach he got his player to the end and as a player he got himself there. It’d be powerful and an incredible achievement against some heavy odds. But, like I said, I don’t think we’re going to see that happen tonight.

Overall, I think Dan will win it tonight, but it won’t be a 7-0 blowout like he achieved last time. I think it could be a lot closer when the final vote is revealed.

So there are my thoughts and expectations for tonight. Now it’s your turn. Who do you think will move on to the Final 2 and who do you think has the best chance to win it all? Share your thoughts below and vote in the poll for who will take the crown.


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